Forecast visualisation (Estonia)

Forecast visualisations. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made (only last 4 weeks shown).

2021-05-24

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-17

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-10

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-03

Cases

Deaths

2021-04-26

Cases

Deaths


Forecast scores (Estonia)

Scores separated by target and forecast horizon. Only models with submission in the last 4 are shown.

Cases

1 week ahead horizon

2 weeks ahead horizon

3 weeks ahead horizon

4 weeks ahead horizon

Deaths

1 week ahead horizon

2 weeks ahead horizon

3 weeks ahead horizon

4 weeks ahead horizon


Evaluation metrics


Scores over time (Estonia)

Visualisation of the weighted interval score over time. In addition, the components of the interval score, sharpness (how narrow are forecasts - smaller is better), and penalties for underprediction and overprediction are shown. Scores are again separated by forecast horizon

1 week ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

2 weeks ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

3 weeks ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

4 weeks ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

If you want to learn more about a model, you can go the the ‘data-processed’-folder of the European Forecast Hub github repository, select a model and access the metadata file with further information provided by the model authors.